The Basics Of The NFL Point Spread
In order to bet on NFL football its important to start with the fundamentals. And were not talking about the Xs and Os of professional football game planning"were talking about the fundamentals of understanding the wagering side of the equation. There's a lot of misunderstanding about what NFL pointspreads mean and how they are setting. A firm grasp of the essential bookmaking concept of setting NFL lines is a prerequisite for sports betting success.
The general public has a tendency to oversimplify the meaning of an NFL pointspread. The conventional wisdom is that it is simply a prediction of which team will win and by how much. In theory, a sportsbooks primary goal is to equally divide the action they take on an individual game. If they do their job right, the outcome of the game is irrelevant to the bookmaker. You'll frequently hear clueless sportscasters make inane comments following a big upset like Boy, the sportsbooks in Las Vegas must have lost their shirts on that one. That's something that simply cannot be determined from the outcome of the game alone.
A bookmakers primary goal in setting NFL betting lines is to equally divide action. To do this they have to make each side of a wagering proposition attractive to a prospective player. For that reason, its more accurate to say that NFL lines are more of a reflection of the betting public's perception of which team will win a game and by how much than anything else. A bookmaker may shade the NFL lines involving teams that are popular with the general public such as the Dallas Cowboys or New England Patriots to make their opponent a more enticing betting option. So if the numbers in a hypothetical game between Dallas and Cincinnati indicate that the Cowboys should be a -6 favorite a book may open the game at -7 or -7. For that reason going against public teams is almost always a strong wagering strategy.
In early season wagering there are a few additional factors at play. A bookmaker may consider a teams NFL preseason record for the simple reason that the NFL betting public gives it undue attention. Sharp players know that there is little correlation between a teams preseason success (or lack thereof) and their regular season performance. Another consideration is a teams performance in the previous season or, in some cases, their historical performance. A team with a winning tradition like New England or Carolina may be priced higher than the true odds indicate as a result.
Its also important to understand why NFL lines are moved after the opening numbers are posted. While it may occasionally be due to external factors such as injury or weather, more often than not its a direct result of the money a book is drawing on one side of the proposition or another. If in our hypothetical example above, Dallas opens -7 and not long after the line is moved to -7 that is an indication that the book has received the majority of their bets on the Bengals. Indeed, many sharp players base their NFL football bets exclusively on line movements.
NFL football betting is a very complex discipline, and many neophytes make the mistake of focusing exclusively on the nuances of the game itself. To successfully bet on NFL football, however, it is important to spend as much time understanding the intricacies of the sports gambling marketplace. - 2361
The general public has a tendency to oversimplify the meaning of an NFL pointspread. The conventional wisdom is that it is simply a prediction of which team will win and by how much. In theory, a sportsbooks primary goal is to equally divide the action they take on an individual game. If they do their job right, the outcome of the game is irrelevant to the bookmaker. You'll frequently hear clueless sportscasters make inane comments following a big upset like Boy, the sportsbooks in Las Vegas must have lost their shirts on that one. That's something that simply cannot be determined from the outcome of the game alone.
A bookmakers primary goal in setting NFL betting lines is to equally divide action. To do this they have to make each side of a wagering proposition attractive to a prospective player. For that reason, its more accurate to say that NFL lines are more of a reflection of the betting public's perception of which team will win a game and by how much than anything else. A bookmaker may shade the NFL lines involving teams that are popular with the general public such as the Dallas Cowboys or New England Patriots to make their opponent a more enticing betting option. So if the numbers in a hypothetical game between Dallas and Cincinnati indicate that the Cowboys should be a -6 favorite a book may open the game at -7 or -7. For that reason going against public teams is almost always a strong wagering strategy.
In early season wagering there are a few additional factors at play. A bookmaker may consider a teams NFL preseason record for the simple reason that the NFL betting public gives it undue attention. Sharp players know that there is little correlation between a teams preseason success (or lack thereof) and their regular season performance. Another consideration is a teams performance in the previous season or, in some cases, their historical performance. A team with a winning tradition like New England or Carolina may be priced higher than the true odds indicate as a result.
Its also important to understand why NFL lines are moved after the opening numbers are posted. While it may occasionally be due to external factors such as injury or weather, more often than not its a direct result of the money a book is drawing on one side of the proposition or another. If in our hypothetical example above, Dallas opens -7 and not long after the line is moved to -7 that is an indication that the book has received the majority of their bets on the Bengals. Indeed, many sharp players base their NFL football bets exclusively on line movements.
NFL football betting is a very complex discipline, and many neophytes make the mistake of focusing exclusively on the nuances of the game itself. To successfully bet on NFL football, however, it is important to spend as much time understanding the intricacies of the sports gambling marketplace. - 2361
About the Author:
Ross Everett is a widely published freelance writer and respected authority on sports betting odds comparison. He writing has appeared on a variety of sports sites including sports news and World Cup betting sites. He lives in Las Vegas, Nevada with three Jack Russell Terriers and an emu. He is currently working on an autobiography of former energy secretary Donald Hodell.
posted by Marcondes Allen at 1:04 AM
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